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Abstract We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time, in particular over the monetary policy cycle. Forecasters update their perceptions about the Fed’s policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that they have imperfect information about the rule. Monetary policy perceptions matter for monetary transmission, as they affect the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic news, term premia in long-term bonds, and the response of the stock market to monetary policy surprises. A simple learning model with forecaster heterogeneity and incomplete information about the policy rule motivates and explains our empirical findings. 

Light is a preeminent spectroscopic tool for investigating the electronic structure of surfaces. Time-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy has mainly been developed in the last 30 years. It is therefore not surprising that the topic was hardly mentioned in the issue on ‘‘The first thirty years’’ of surface science. In the second thirty years, however, we have seen tremendous progress in the development of time-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy on surfaces. Femtosecond light pulses and advanced photoelectron detection schemes are increasingly being used to study the electronic structure and dynamics of occupied and unoccupied electronic states and dynamic processes such as the energy and momentum relaxation of electrons, charge transfer at interfaces and collective processes such as plasmonic excitation and optical field screening. Using spin- and time-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy, we were able to study ultrafast spin dynamics, electron–magnon scattering and spin structures in magnetic and topological materials. Light also provides photon energy as well as electric and magnetic fields that can influence molecular surface processes to steer surface photochemistry and hot-electron-driven catalysis. In addition, we can consider light as a chemical reagent that can alter the properties of matter by creating non-equilibrium states and ultrafast phase transitions in correlated materials through the coupling of electrons, phonons and spins. Electric fields have also been used to temporarily change the electronic structure. This opened up new methods and areas such as high harmonic generation, light wave electronics and attosecond physics. This overview certainly cannot cover all these interesting topics. But also as a testimony to the cohesion and constructive exchange in our ultrafast community, a number of colleagues have come together to share their expertise and views on the very vital field of dynamics at surfaces. 

Charge density wave (CDW) order is an emergent quantum phase that is characterized by periodic lattice distortion and charge density modulation, often present near superconducting transitions. Here, we uncover a novel inverted CDW state by using a femtosecond laser to coherently reverse the star-of-David lattice distortion in 1T-TaSe2. We track the signature of this novel CDW state using time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy and the time-dependent density functional theory to validate that it is associated with a unique lattice and charge arrangement never before realized. The dynamic electronic structure further reveals its novel properties that are characterized by an increased density of states near the Fermi level, high metallicity, and altered electron–phonon couplings. Our results demonstrate how ultrafast lasers can be used to create unique states in materials by manipulating charge-lattice orders and couplings. 

Ultrashort light pulses can selectively excite charges, spins, and phonons in materials, providing a powerful approach for manipulating their properties. Here we use femtosecond laser pulses to coherently manipulate the electron and phonon distributions, and their couplings, in the charge-density wave (CDW) material 1T-TaSe₂. After exciting the material with a femtosecond pulse, fast spatial smearing of the laser-excited electrons launches a coherent lattice breathing mode, which in turn modulates the electron temperature. This finding is in contrast to all previous observations in multiple materials to date, where the electron temperature decreases monotonically via electron–phonon scattering. By tuning the laser fluence, the magnitude of the electron temperature modulation changes from ∼200 K in the case of weak excitation, to ∼1,000 K for strong laser excitation. We also observe a phase change of π in the electron temperature modulation at a critical fluence of 0.7 mJ/cm², which suggests a switching of the dominant coupling mechanism between the coherent phonon and electrons. Our approach opens up routes for coherently manipulating the interactions and properties of two-dimensional and other quantum materials using light. 

Quantum materials represent one of the most promising frontiers in the quest for faster, lightweight, energy-efficient technologies. However, their inherent complexity and rich phase landscape make them challenging to understand or manipulate. Here, we present a new ultrafast electron calorimetry technique that can systematically uncover new phases of quantum matter. Using time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, we measure the dynamic electron temperature, band structure, and heat capacity. This approach allows us to uncover a new long-lived metastable state in the charge density wave material 1 T -TaSe 2 , which is distinct from all the known equilibrium phases: It is characterized by a substantially reduced effective total heat capacity that is only 30% of the normal value, because of selective electron-phonon coupling to a subset of phonon modes. As a result, less energy is required to melt the charge order and transform the state of the material than under thermal equilibrium conditions. 

Flow tube reactors are widely employed to study gas-phase atmospheric chemistry and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. The development of a new laminar-flow tube reactor, the Caltech Photooxidation Flow Tube (CPOT), intended for the study of gas-phase atmospheric chemistry and SOA formation, is reported here. The present work addresses the reactor design based on fluid dynamical characterization and the fundamental behavior of vapor molecules and particles in the reactor. The design of the inlet to the reactor, based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, comprises a static mixer and a conical diffuser to facilitate development of a characteristic laminar flow profile. To assess the extent to which the actual performance adheres to the theoretical CFD model, residence time distribution (RTD) experiments are reported with vapor molecules (O₃) and submicrometer ammonium sulfate particles. As confirmed by the CFD prediction, the presence of a slight deviation from strictly isothermal conditions leads to secondary flows in the reactor that produce deviations from the ideal parabolic laminar flow. The characterization experiments, in conjunction with theory, provide a basis for interpretation of atmospheric chemistry and SOA studies to follow. A 1-D photochemical model within an axially dispersed plug flow reactor (AD-PFR) framework is formulated to evaluate the oxidation level in the reactor. The simulation indicates that the OH concentration is uniform along the reactor, and an OH exposure (OH_exp) ranging from ∼ 10⁹ to ∼ 10¹² molecules cm⁻³ s can be achieved from photolysis of H₂O₂. A method to calculate OH_exp with a consideration for the axial dispersion in the present photochemical system is developed.